Battlefield Medway 2015: Too Close To Call
In the run-up to the 2010 General Election, I developed a computer model to project the vote share among the four main parties in Medway, which was largely accurate.
On the eve of polling day, I published my final projection results via Twitter, then sat through the count watching with interest to see how accurate my computer model had been.
The results were impressive:
| Chatham & Aylesford | ||||
| Party | Candidate | Projection | Result | Margin |
| Conservative | Tracey Crouch | 46% | 46% | 0 |
| Labour | Jonathan Shaw | 36% | 32% | -4 |
| Liberal Democrats | John McClintock | 15% | 13% | -2 |
| UK Independence Party | Steve Newton | 4% | 3% | -1 |
| Gillingham & Rainham | ||||
| Party | Candidate | Projection | Result | Margin |
| Conservative | Rehman Chishti | 47% | 46% | -1 |
| Labour | Paul Clark | 29% | 28% | -1 |
| Liberal Democrats | Andy Stamp | 19% | 18% | -1 |
| UK Independence Party | Robert Oakley | 5% | 3% | -2 |
| Rochester & Strood | ||||
| Party | Candidate | Projection | Result | Margin |
| Conservative | Mark Reckless | 50% | 49% | -1 |
| Labour | Teresa Murray | 35% | 29% | -6 |
| Liberal Democrats | Geoff Juby | 14% | 16% | +2 |
| UK Independence Party | Did not stand | |||
The model, which combined local and national polling to provide a local picture, was, in most cases, correct within a reasonable margin of error. The only exception was in Rochester & Strood, were UKIP’s decision not to field a candidate against Mark Reckless made projecting the vote share there a little more complicated.
Over the weekend, Liberal Democrat blogger Chris Sams released his predictions for Battlefield Medway 2015. His analysis is quite detailed, and I would urge readers to take a look for themselves, but in essence he claims Rochester & Strood will be a Conservative hold, Gillingham & Rainham will be a Labour gain and Chatham & Ayelsford could go either way.
I thought this a little optimistic, and couldn’t see Chatham & Ayelsford being too closest to call, so I resurrected my computer model and updated the figures to calculate projections on where the votes currently lie:
| Chatham & Aylesford | |||
| Party | Candidate | Projection | Margin |
| Conservative | Tracey Crouch | 41% | 38% – 44% |
| Labour | Tristan Osborne | 42% | 39% – 45% |
| Liberal Democrats | To be confirmed | 4% | 1% – 7% |
| UK Independence Party | To be confirmed | 11% | 8% – 14% |
| Projected Result | Labour Gain | ||
| Gillingham & Rainham | |||
| Party | Candidate | Projection | Margin |
| Conservative | Rehman Chishti | 41% | 38% – 44% |
| Labour | Paul Clark | 43% | 40% – 46% |
| Liberal Democrats | To be confirmed | 4% | 1% – 7% |
| UK Independence Party | To be confirmed | 9% | 6% – 12% |
| Projected Result | Labour Gain | ||
| Rochester & Strood | |||
| Party | Candidate | Projection | Margin |
| Conservative | Mark Reckless | 42% | 39% – 45% |
| Labour | To be confirmed | 40% | 37% – 43% |
| Liberal Democrats | To be confirmed | 10% | 7% – 11% |
| UK Independence Party | To be confirmed | 5% | 2% – 8% |
| Projected Result | Conservative Hold | ||
The results speak for themselves. Rochester & Strood is projected to be a Conservative hold, Gillingham & Rainham a Labour gain and Chatham & Aylesford closest to call. Mr Sams, I eat my words!
The projection shows that the Liberal Democrat vote has virtually collapsed in Chatham & Aylesford and Gillingham & Rainham (as evidenced in both the national opinion polls and the 2011 local election), but has been largely resilient in Rochester & Strood. Conversely, UKIP has surged in Chatham & Aylesford and Gillingham & Rainham, but remained static in Rochester & Strood (they achieved only 4% of the vote in 2005) – perhaps largely due to the anti-EU nature of the incumbent Tory.
Of course, these projections are based, partly, upon mid-term opinion polling, and the political landscape may change dramatically between now and 2015. However, when you consider the figures involved, and particularly the margins of error included in the tables for information, one thing is clear:
At the moment, Battlefield Medway 2015 is too close to call!
Mark Reckless is no longer a member of the Conservative Party but was re-elected last Autumn as a UKIP MP, so he is no longer a “Tory incumbent”. Your analysis for the Rochester and Strood constituency is inaccurate.
This analysis was written in March 2013 – well over two years ago. A lot has changed since then, of which I am well aware. I helped Mark during the by-election as I am continuing to do for the general election, whilst also personally standing for election to Medway Council (as a UKIP candidate) in one of the wards which forms part of the Rochester & Strood constituency.